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公司新聞 Company news

全球風電市場風起云涌 國內廠商如何守住海上陣地

2017-11-25

  北極星風力發電網訊:海上風能可謂是一座取之不竭用之不盡的寶庫,但與陸上風電相比,居高不下的成本卻是發展海上風電必須要面對的一道難題。比較兩者的項目成本構成可以發現,風機占到陸上風電成本的60%—80%,而在海上風電成本中風機占比則不到一半,其中研發、批復、許可、咨詢等其他成本占比卻高達30%左右。

  根據相關資料顯示,海上風電風速高,發電量比陸上風電多50%,雖然這可以部分抵消其較高的投資成本,但為追求更好的風資源,海上風電場的選址離岸越來越遠,水越來越深,相應帶來了地基、并網和安裝等一系列成本的攀升。

  但是,這種狀況即將被改變。日前,歐洲可再生能源研究機構KICInnoEnergy和技術顧問BVGAssociates聯合發布報告稱,隨著技術的不斷創新,預計到2030年,歐洲海上風電平均成本將下降33%。

  報告中認為,施工和場地描繪等前期投資因技術創新有望到2030年減少平均成本3%左右,風力渦輪機功率提升將有助于平均成本下降18%,其余在風機領域的技術創新則有助于成本下降6%,轉子等組件創新將幫助成本下降7%,其余配套設施的創新將幫助平均成本下降4%。無論從前期投資還是產品本身的技術創新都將通過能效優化以及制造、施工、運營過程中的效率提高來逐步降低海上風電的平均成本。

  而伴隨著海上風電成本的下降,以西門子牽頭的新一輪并購潮或許也即將臨近。

  早在21世紀最初幾年,也就是上一輪并購重組熱潮中,美國GE于2002年通過并購安然風力公司、德國西門子于2004年通過并購丹麥Bonus,進入風機制造領域,并逐漸在全球成為主要玩家。

  西門子更于2012年宣布退出太陽能業務,將風能業務視為發展重點。當此之時,根據相關統計數據,西門子此前一年(2011年)還以5.9%的市場份額位列全球第九;但2012年至今,全球前四之爭就變成西門子、維斯塔斯、GE、金風科技之間的“戰爭”。

  而在2016年初,西門子啟動與西班牙風機制造商歌美颯合并的談判,這起涉資7.85億歐元的并購已于2016年6月17日正式宣布。在合并后的新公司中,西門子和歌美颯的董事會分別擁有59%、41%的股權。

  據丹麥風電資訊機構Make發布的《2015年全球風機制造商市場份額分析報告》,在陸上和海上整體市場份額排名中,西門子和歌美颯分別以7.5%、5.9%的份額位居全球第四、第五,雙方的合并則意味著14.5%的全球份額,一舉超越了維斯塔斯、金風科技、GE,改變了全球風電設備的市場格局。

  反觀中國風電發展,外資巨頭新一輪的并購重組是否會對中國市場形成沖擊?

  一位本土風機廠商相關負責人告訴記者,雖然外資廠商在早年間曾主導中國風電設備市場,但由于本土廠商集體崛起,特別是在主管部門對風機設備的國產化率做出相關要求之后,外資在中國風電市場的份額已經在逐年下降,目前已經降到5%以上,所以外資廠商的并購重組對中國市場的影響很小。

  但西門子中國方面強調,西門子是唯一活躍于中國海上風電市場的外資技術企業。通過與歌美颯這個全球最具實力的陸上風機制造商在本地強強聯手,西門子期待合并后的公司將在中國和亞太地區迎來進一步的業務增長。

  面對國際性的巨大挑戰,中國可再生能源學會風能專業委員會秘書長秦海巖認為,我國風電行業首先要突破成本瓶頸。“技術再先進、再好,如果不能把風電成本降下來也無效益,我們所有的目標都要圍繞著怎么把成本降下來這個關鍵。”

  秦海巖表示,風電降本有三方面的推動力:首先,技術創新是根本,由于海上風電風機成本占比小,可加快更大容量機組、更大直徑風機的上馬;第二,要健全產業體系,包括價格政策、市場規模,持續穩定增長的海上風電市場,是產業能夠延續下去的關鍵;第三,要加強產業上下游的通力合作,確立建設標準。不過,也有專家也指出,相對國內廠商來說,外資風電廠商在國內市場缺乏靈活性,產品價格較高、后期運維成本較大,這將使外資廠商逐漸失寵。
 

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蘇ICP備17051996號-1
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